* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 54 56 58 56 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 31 33 40 47 54 56 58 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 30 31 35 39 43 47 49 51 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 2 3 5 8 10 20 14 17 13 15 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 0 -1 -2 0 -8 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 298 316 187 211 246 266 287 287 304 304 297 305 244 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 27.8 28.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 155 153 165 161 160 156 151 150 134 138 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 133 132 142 138 136 132 125 125 112 116 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 55 59 63 66 66 67 65 70 68 69 66 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 8 8 10 10 11 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -31 0 2 -17 7 -9 -13 -29 -5 -10 -4 4 200 MB DIV 5 4 30 33 7 23 15 25 5 14 22 33 30 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 2 2 13 12 13 6 3 9 11 6 LAND (KM) -45 -48 -27 42 98 286 338 310 325 413 568 569 478 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 8 10 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 41 42 60 59 50 40 25 25 27 29 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 29. 31. 33. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.4 80.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 20.4% 14.5% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 19.5% 12.8% 5.1% 1.3% 5.4% 5.3% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 13.4% 9.2% 5.1% 0.4% 1.8% 6.3% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 31 33 40 47 54 56 58 57 59 60 18HR AGO 25 24 24 29 31 38 45 52 54 56 55 57 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 28 35 42 49 51 53 52 54 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 38 40 42 41 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT