* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 35 43 50 54 53 50 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 29 31 35 43 49 54 52 49 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 28 29 32 36 40 43 44 42 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 4 3 5 11 16 22 25 32 36 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -8 -1 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 252 300 322 206 223 278 271 298 293 312 309 325 313 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 157 153 157 167 163 156 152 145 134 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 134 131 134 145 142 134 129 123 112 112 107 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 63 66 66 68 66 62 56 53 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 9 8 8 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -31 0 0 -19 0 -29 -30 -53 -50 -40 -11 200 MB DIV 16 11 -2 33 27 6 28 22 23 -2 5 16 30 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 1 8 7 7 3 7 11 23 7 LAND (KM) 10 -5 -19 27 75 193 371 349 348 485 608 568 462 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 9 11 11 11 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 43 43 51 91 55 34 22 27 28 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -5. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 29. 28. 25. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.8 80.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.7% 12.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 14.7% 7.4% 2.1% 0.6% 5.3% 15.2% 15.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 11.1% 6.7% 3.5% 0.2% 1.8% 9.6% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/24/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 24 29 31 35 43 49 54 52 49 46 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 30 32 36 44 50 55 53 50 47 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 28 32 40 46 51 49 46 43 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 29 35 40 38 35 32 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT