* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 43 51 58 58 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 26 31 39 47 54 54 55 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 26 26 31 36 41 45 47 48 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 8 2 9 9 19 19 28 28 31 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 2 0 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -5 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 277 274 308 319 286 267 290 291 298 305 292 315 341 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 159 163 159 155 162 167 163 158 150 142 140 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 139 134 131 138 142 142 138 126 121 122 118 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 59 64 66 72 73 71 65 63 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 6 6 7 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -36 -43 -37 -10 -16 -3 -20 -26 -51 -26 -47 -16 200 MB DIV -3 16 8 0 33 2 35 19 31 -1 5 12 26 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 3 14 9 10 5 8 11 15 LAND (KM) 36 -8 -47 -43 -27 88 199 329 301 355 491 559 423 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 6 8 12 14 11 13 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 46 44 41 55 109 53 42 23 29 31 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 3. -2. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 18. 26. 33. 33. 33. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.6 79.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.5% 11.8% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 27.3% 16.6% 12.1% 5.1% 27.1% 29.9% 51.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 14.7% 9.5% 6.8% 1.7% 9.0% 14.5% 17.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/23/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 26 31 39 47 54 54 55 53 50 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 31 39 47 54 54 55 53 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 27 35 43 50 50 51 49 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 29 37 44 44 45 43 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT