* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 25 30 36 43 47 49 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 21 22 30 30 28 27 32 34 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 21 22 26 25 26 26 32 36 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 6 8 10 4 4 3 4 6 3 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -4 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 292 288 285 316 331 269 28 299 80 35 57 63 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.6 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 169 168 168 167 168 169 160 167 165 161 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 146 150 153 153 152 152 136 143 140 136 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 58 59 56 60 60 64 64 68 67 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -68 -38 -33 -50 -21 -16 -11 -23 -29 -56 -28 -43 200 MB DIV 15 -15 -1 17 -1 24 7 10 10 26 -3 19 39 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 8 8 9 1 LAND (KM) 87 23 -17 -25 -1 0 -5 -63 -47 81 243 402 522 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.2 80.6 81.0 81.3 81.7 81.8 81.5 80.9 79.8 78.2 76.6 75.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 6 8 7 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 68 60 54 52 50 53 57 27 43 56 77 47 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 10. 16. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.0 79.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 28.7% 20.9% 13.5% 4.3% 15.7% 21.7% 59.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 9.7% 7.0% 4.5% 1.4% 5.2% 7.2% 19.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/23/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 21 22 30 30 28 27 32 34 36 35 18HR AGO 20 19 18 20 21 29 29 27 26 31 33 35 34 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 27 27 25 24 29 31 33 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT