* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 26 35 40 47 51 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 20 22 25 26 26 27 33 36 39 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 22 25 26 26 27 33 38 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 9 9 9 3 7 4 8 5 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 249 266 287 281 295 338 299 315 283 330 344 27 78 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.8 30.1 30.6 30.8 30.4 29.9 28.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 164 169 169 168 167 165 148 168 166 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 141 145 153 153 144 138 124 142 140 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 54 55 57 59 56 63 65 69 70 73 69 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 4 5 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -66 -61 -39 -34 -40 -8 -24 -3 -35 -17 -43 -10 200 MB DIV 12 11 -13 -2 4 -8 27 -7 19 7 48 -3 41 700-850 TADV 3 0 -5 0 1 -1 0 4 2 7 7 2 15 LAND (KM) 159 91 32 -22 -63 -59 -68 -92 -10 88 230 369 506 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.2 29.0 29.6 29.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.4 79.9 80.4 80.8 81.4 81.5 81.3 80.7 79.9 78.6 77.1 75.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 4 5 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 63 55 51 53 34 21 20 35 52 99 46 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 15. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.1 78.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 14.7% 8.9% 4.8% 1.3% 10.1% 24.7% 56.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 3.4% 8.2% 18.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/23/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 20 22 25 26 26 27 33 36 39 40 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 24 25 25 26 32 35 38 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 20 21 21 22 28 31 34 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT