* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 08/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 28 35 43 48 52 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 22 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 20 24 26 26 27 31 35 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 15 10 10 3 7 5 7 1 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 276 254 264 275 270 311 356 302 340 295 55 356 37 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.3 30.8 30.4 29.9 28.7 28.9 30.5 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 164 169 168 168 165 145 149 170 165 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 142 141 149 155 146 138 123 126 151 139 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 56 58 57 62 64 70 72 78 74 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -55 -67 -64 -40 -50 -22 -16 -8 -31 -23 -47 -15 200 MB DIV 5 9 8 -14 -11 5 34 7 25 4 39 5 10 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -3 0 0 0 2 4 8 7 10 3 LAND (KM) 214 151 87 20 -32 -59 -45 -74 -78 42 183 218 238 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.7 31.5 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.8 79.4 80.0 80.5 81.3 81.7 81.8 81.5 80.7 79.5 78.0 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 66 66 61 54 51 35 38 24 27 29 83 53 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.9 78.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 08/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.4% 6.1% 4.5% 1.4% 13.5% 29.7% 62.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 4.5% 9.9% 20.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982019 INVEST 08/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 08/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 22 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 39 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 20 23 24 24 25 28 31 35 37 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 34 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT