* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 36 40 49 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 36 40 49 53 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 28 34 42 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 15 17 15 19 7 3 8 16 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 2 -1 -3 -3 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 297 311 300 304 294 275 298 307 74 28 337 337 346 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.3 26.5 27.0 26.8 27.4 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 126 126 131 122 125 122 132 148 140 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 109 110 115 105 104 101 117 141 133 129 128 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 6 2 0 0 0 4 6 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 59 61 59 59 61 65 61 53 53 49 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 2 2 3 3 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -124 -116 -81 -87 -84 -96 -111 -67 13 67 63 34 18 200 MB DIV 44 34 40 45 33 2 -40 6 -27 12 -37 -18 -34 700-850 TADV 17 2 9 27 17 6 1 6 4 23 9 12 5 LAND (KM) 81 49 135 278 383 464 489 665 976 1456 1295 1229 1387 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.0 35.9 36.8 37.7 39.3 39.9 39.3 36.6 31.7 27.0 24.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 75.6 74.4 72.6 70.6 65.9 62.1 59.5 58.4 58.3 57.3 55.6 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 15 18 19 18 12 11 20 26 20 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 11 5 20 2 0 25 25 20 16 16 22 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 24. 28. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.2 76.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.4% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/26/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 36 40 49 53 55 57 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 31 35 39 48 52 54 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 27 31 35 44 48 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 24 28 37 41 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT