* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 39 39 41 43 43 56 67 75 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 39 39 41 43 43 56 67 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 39 44 55 67 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 13 12 14 17 18 14 4 9 16 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -4 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 282 295 308 298 303 294 301 307 358 67 1 337 343 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.4 26.5 27.7 26.9 27.1 28.0 28.3 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 129 128 132 122 134 123 127 141 145 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 108 110 111 115 106 112 100 107 130 139 128 130 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 5 0 0 0 2 6 7 8 10 700-500 MB RH 52 56 60 62 61 59 61 62 56 51 51 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 3 3 4 2 10 18 23 850 MB ENV VOR -109 -126 -105 -79 -74 -67 -125 -74 -18 45 48 1 -4 200 MB DIV 33 47 46 48 52 -7 0 -29 -1 -6 -40 -35 -38 700-850 TADV 11 15 0 20 39 15 2 -2 11 9 21 12 6 LAND (KM) 147 67 59 178 318 419 475 584 792 1171 1427 1194 1252 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.0 36.9 38.6 39.5 39.6 38.2 34.3 29.3 25.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.1 75.4 73.9 72.0 67.6 63.5 60.8 59.1 58.9 58.4 57.1 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 12 16 18 19 13 9 14 23 23 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 23 8 21 17 0 39 40 23 7 18 15 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. 1. 10. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 11. 13. 13. 26. 37. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.5 76.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.5% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 9.4% 12.7% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 3.7% 3.2% 4.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 35 39 39 41 43 43 56 67 75 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 38 38 40 42 42 55 66 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 33 35 37 37 50 61 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 25 27 29 29 42 53 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT