* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 42 45 43 43 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 42 45 43 43 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 38 40 42 42 43 47 50 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 17 18 17 19 16 20 8 18 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 -5 3 -4 -4 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 281 287 285 294 308 313 296 298 313 15 44 19 358 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.2 26.3 26.2 26.5 27.2 28.1 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 132 131 129 130 120 117 118 129 142 143 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 111 111 112 115 105 97 96 110 131 133 128 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -56.4 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 6 4 0 0 0 3 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 52 53 56 59 64 61 51 51 53 52 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -97 -110 -131 -110 -61 -84 -120 -40 0 58 37 19 200 MB DIV -2 -12 37 64 59 43 -15 0 -41 -9 -18 -21 -14 700-850 TADV 10 8 12 17 11 43 22 5 -8 8 18 17 17 LAND (KM) 315 203 107 80 135 381 422 492 629 876 1270 1455 1270 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.7 37.8 39.7 40.5 39.8 37.6 33.6 29.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.1 76.1 75.5 74.4 70.4 65.4 61.1 58.9 58.4 58.2 57.6 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 11 16 21 20 13 8 16 23 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 50 32 24 7 2 0 0 20 24 6 21 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 15. 13. 13. 11. 12. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 75.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.7% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 36 38 42 45 43 43 41 42 42 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 34 38 41 39 39 37 38 38 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 36 34 34 32 33 33 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 27 27 25 26 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT