* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 43 42 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 43 42 41 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 35 38 40 40 40 41 43 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 13 14 19 20 19 14 22 14 13 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -4 -2 0 -3 -5 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 271 288 295 291 300 320 311 301 303 322 50 53 22 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.5 26.7 25.8 26.5 27.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 134 132 133 122 123 111 119 132 144 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 117 113 112 117 108 105 92 98 118 137 129 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -55.5 -56.0 -56.3 -56.5 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 7 7 1 0 0 1 4 6 7 700-500 MB RH 43 49 52 53 54 61 63 55 51 53 53 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -87 -96 -110 -141 -78 -74 -119 -98 -26 72 107 53 200 MB DIV -16 -8 0 38 73 43 -6 -4 -6 -7 -25 -2 -16 700-850 TADV 8 10 8 13 20 33 27 15 -1 0 4 35 22 LAND (KM) 448 323 229 143 120 320 414 411 523 662 1018 1538 1439 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.9 32.8 33.7 34.6 36.6 38.6 40.3 40.6 39.7 36.5 31.5 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 75.6 75.9 75.7 75.0 72.2 67.7 63.0 59.7 58.1 57.4 56.8 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 10 12 19 21 17 9 10 22 25 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 35 37 30 38 25 0 3 5 2 14 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.0 74.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 9.4% 11.1% Logistic: 1.2% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.4% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 43 42 41 40 40 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 37 41 40 39 38 37 37 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 36 35 34 33 32 32 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 27 26 25 24 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT