* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 40 45 44 47 48 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 40 45 44 47 48 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 38 42 51 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 9 11 17 17 12 14 10 4 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 262 270 288 300 292 330 315 314 322 345 34 33 25 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 28.3 27.5 27.7 27.0 27.1 27.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 143 138 133 144 133 133 123 126 140 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 125 121 116 116 127 114 109 99 106 128 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -55.4 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.0 -56.1 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 9 6 5 0 0 0 2 5 7 700-500 MB RH 41 43 50 53 53 57 59 60 54 56 48 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 3 4 5 2 3 3 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -76 -97 -95 -114 -111 -76 -85 -130 -79 -42 51 5 200 MB DIV 3 -16 -3 8 42 59 33 -12 0 -15 9 2 -41 700-850 TADV 0 4 6 8 13 13 39 26 2 5 4 12 18 LAND (KM) 574 464 354 255 190 152 434 512 528 598 758 1155 1476 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.3 32.2 33.1 34.9 36.9 38.4 39.2 39.5 38.5 34.5 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.3 76.0 76.3 76.2 74.4 70.5 66.2 62.8 60.7 59.2 58.8 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 15 19 17 10 7 13 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 38 37 42 44 25 1 48 37 18 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -9. -9. -11. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 15. 20. 19. 22. 23. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 74.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.8% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 34 40 45 44 47 48 63 62 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 32 38 43 42 45 46 61 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 33 38 37 40 41 56 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 25 30 29 32 33 48 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT