* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 40 46 44 43 44 43 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 40 46 44 43 44 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 38 39 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 12 13 19 17 21 16 18 17 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 293 277 283 289 305 314 328 309 305 299 275 253 240 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.3 25.4 25.5 23.9 22.0 20.3 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 142 139 133 131 113 111 97 87 79 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 124 122 118 114 117 101 95 81 75 69 68 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 9 10 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 39 42 44 50 53 55 63 64 57 56 50 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 3 3 5 3 4 6 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -44 -77 -88 -96 -150 -84 -82 -134 -99 -28 59 76 200 MB DIV 13 0 -12 -3 16 62 57 2 -1 -13 39 24 42 700-850 TADV 5 0 5 6 7 20 40 40 9 0 7 4 0 LAND (KM) 679 576 465 354 253 113 312 384 400 408 388 333 311 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.6 32.6 34.7 37.0 39.4 41.0 41.8 43.0 43.8 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 73.9 74.8 75.5 75.8 75.0 72.0 67.0 62.0 59.3 57.4 55.3 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 13 21 23 16 9 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 47 36 37 39 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -5. -9. -9. -8. -9. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 19. 18. 19. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.5 72.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.8% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.2% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/24/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 35 40 46 44 43 44 43 47 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 32 37 43 41 40 41 40 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 32 38 36 35 36 35 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 24 30 28 27 28 27 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT