* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 48 52 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 48 52 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 42 43 43 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 9 11 11 19 16 13 14 16 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 -6 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 278 296 270 277 288 304 326 310 304 302 319 350 41 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.3 25.1 25.9 26.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 145 144 137 131 131 121 107 111 122 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 125 125 123 116 115 118 108 91 90 103 124 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -55.5 -55.7 -56.3 -56.7 -56.7 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 0 0 0 1 5 700-500 MB RH 37 40 43 44 50 55 60 63 64 55 55 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 4 5 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -32 -35 -73 -87 -106 -111 -55 -63 -108 -53 18 102 200 MB DIV -10 16 6 -11 0 50 61 53 -22 -2 0 -6 1 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 5 6 14 20 46 20 -8 -2 10 0 LAND (KM) 776 676 585 471 360 165 172 393 382 481 606 797 1236 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.4 33.4 35.5 37.9 40.2 41.1 40.7 39.1 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.2 74.1 75.0 75.7 75.9 74.0 69.8 64.2 59.3 57.0 56.1 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 17 23 24 14 6 15 24 HEAT CONTENT 45 40 42 47 34 36 30 3 1 0 15 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -7. -7. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 23. 27. 25. 24. 25. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.9 72.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.7% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 48 52 50 49 50 49 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 45 49 47 46 47 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 40 44 42 41 42 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 32 36 34 33 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT