* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 47 56 56 49 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 47 56 56 49 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 40 45 47 44 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 9 12 12 16 12 22 18 19 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 15 279 277 276 279 309 312 325 301 316 332 5 35 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.5 25.6 25.4 26.3 26.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 152 151 152 152 144 134 115 112 117 125 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 131 130 130 128 123 119 104 98 96 106 133 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8 -56.3 -56.5 -56.7 -56.3 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 2 0 0 1 4 700-500 MB RH 34 37 40 43 46 53 58 65 65 60 58 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 3 3 8 7 3 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -35 -40 -80 -84 -137 -74 -56 -105 -84 -37 0 200 MB DIV -15 -4 19 8 -22 29 78 58 31 -2 -22 -7 -22 700-850 TADV 0 6 4 1 6 5 24 41 65 29 0 6 27 LAND (KM) 848 737 642 544 445 234 99 306 403 461 643 878 1296 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.3 30.9 32.7 34.8 37.1 39.5 41.0 40.4 38.4 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 72.3 73.3 74.2 75.0 76.0 75.1 72.0 66.6 60.4 56.8 55.8 55.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 10 13 21 26 21 10 15 24 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 43 44 46 37 42 11 0 0 16 1 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -3. -4. -11. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 22. 31. 32. 24. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.7 71.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.1% 14.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.7% 5.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.0% 6.7% 3.9% 0.1% 0.3% 3.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/24/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 33 38 41 47 56 56 49 49 51 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 36 39 45 54 54 47 47 49 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 33 39 48 48 41 41 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 25 31 40 40 33 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT