* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 45 47 55 45 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 45 47 55 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 43 46 44 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 5 8 15 17 21 20 20 17 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -4 -3 -5 -2 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 21 39 290 298 279 289 307 322 318 329 335 358 14 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.0 27.4 26.8 27.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 152 152 152 149 140 128 132 122 133 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 131 131 131 129 126 121 113 115 101 113 137 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 -55.0 -55.8 -56.1 -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 6 4 0 0 2 5 700-500 MB RH 34 34 36 40 42 49 56 62 65 64 58 56 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 9 1 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -40 -47 -46 -44 -85 -111 -109 -84 -68 -66 -43 -7 200 MB DIV -21 -3 2 11 15 -7 39 45 43 -18 -23 -30 -27 700-850 TADV -6 0 6 6 2 7 15 22 46 48 5 -2 17 LAND (KM) 932 904 812 713 607 387 198 259 412 435 639 878 1241 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.4 30.1 31.7 33.8 35.9 38.1 39.8 39.4 37.4 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.6 71.6 72.4 73.2 74.6 74.7 73.0 69.0 63.8 60.0 58.9 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 16 21 20 11 14 22 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 40 38 37 39 16 25 8 11 27 22 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -4. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 30. 20. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.1 69.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.22 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.3% 16.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.4% 7.7% 2.4% 0.6% 2.6% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 10.2% 8.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.9% 4.0% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/24/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/24/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 45 47 55 45 47 49 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 43 45 53 43 45 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 38 40 48 38 40 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 29 31 39 29 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT