* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/23/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 48 49 52 56 52 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 43 48 49 52 56 52 51 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 48 50 53 52 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 4 4 6 12 17 20 19 26 21 25 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -5 -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -7 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 29 19 52 291 300 294 316 321 325 303 307 312 338 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.0 26.2 26.6 26.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 152 152 152 147 140 120 122 117 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 131 132 132 130 129 126 124 106 103 95 102 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.3 -56.7 -56.8 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 6 1 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 33 33 33 35 38 42 51 59 67 66 60 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 3 3 6 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -32 -43 -47 -49 -70 -83 -139 -88 -66 -80 -62 23 200 MB DIV -11 -16 -1 4 14 -20 11 46 46 15 -1 -17 1 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -1 5 4 4 8 21 45 41 10 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 911 912 934 832 728 512 291 168 360 431 472 618 799 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.3 30.7 32.5 34.7 37.1 39.2 40.4 39.9 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.4 70.4 71.4 72.3 74.0 75.0 74.3 71.3 66.5 61.6 58.9 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 20 22 15 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 34 31 38 38 38 35 34 14 0 0 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 19. 22. 26. 22. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 68.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.2% 15.8% 11.6% 9.6% 12.4% 11.5% 17.6% Logistic: 2.3% 9.6% 6.9% 1.9% 0.5% 2.8% 1.9% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.1% 7.8% 4.5% 3.4% 5.1% 4.5% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/23/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 43 48 49 52 56 52 51 51 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 41 46 47 50 54 50 49 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 41 42 45 49 45 44 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 32 33 36 40 36 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT