* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 49 53 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 49 53 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 40 46 50 53 57 58 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 3 4 9 13 15 18 13 17 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -7 -5 -4 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 44 36 27 58 301 293 305 315 335 311 314 319 334 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.9 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 150 151 151 151 151 150 147 146 139 124 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 127 131 132 132 130 129 126 126 130 121 104 106 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -56.4 -56.6 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 7 5 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 32 33 33 33 35 40 46 52 61 65 61 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 3 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -34 -28 -37 -47 -49 -81 -101 -107 -81 -93 -98 -41 200 MB DIV -20 -16 -17 -10 5 15 -14 34 25 21 -9 10 -10 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 0 5 2 4 9 12 30 35 3 -5 LAND (KM) 925 897 909 916 830 622 431 258 257 480 506 623 822 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.9 31.3 33.1 34.9 37.1 39.0 39.5 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.7 69.7 70.7 71.6 73.3 74.5 74.6 73.2 69.6 64.6 60.2 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 14 21 21 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 45 33 32 37 42 41 17 30 41 21 31 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 19. 23. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 67.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.25 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.4% 16.1% 11.7% 9.8% 12.8% 12.4% 19.4% Logistic: 2.2% 8.5% 6.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.7% 7.7% 4.5% 3.4% 5.4% 4.8% 7.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/23/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 45 49 53 54 57 58 59 60 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 47 51 52 55 56 57 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 42 46 47 50 51 52 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 33 37 38 41 42 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT