* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 50 54 54 54 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 45 50 54 54 54 54 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 39 44 49 52 54 56 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 6 3 5 12 17 21 19 18 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -7 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 -4 -6 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 49 40 19 19 299 290 307 325 349 337 345 342 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 150 151 151 151 151 150 147 141 142 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 126 130 132 130 129 126 126 127 123 120 107 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -56.3 -56.8 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 31 32 33 34 34 37 43 52 56 64 65 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -50 -34 -27 -39 -51 -67 -67 -139 -103 -92 -113 -112 200 MB DIV 0 -21 -13 -15 -15 20 -6 15 11 7 7 -3 -23 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -5 0 5 5 8 13 30 34 25 3 LAND (KM) 961 914 897 899 922 728 535 358 255 344 500 539 664 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 29.3 30.6 32.1 33.7 35.5 37.5 38.8 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.8 68.7 69.6 70.6 72.3 73.7 74.4 74.0 72.1 68.3 63.9 60.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 10 15 19 16 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 46 38 33 28 23 33 17 26 54 56 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 20. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.9 66.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.7% 17.3% 12.9% 10.9% 13.7% 12.6% 18.1% Logistic: 2.8% 9.6% 8.2% 3.4% 0.9% 4.2% 2.2% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 10.7% 8.9% 5.4% 4.0% 6.0% 4.9% 6.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/23/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/23/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 45 50 54 54 54 54 54 54 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 48 52 52 52 52 52 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 43 47 47 47 47 47 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 34 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT