* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 50 54 56 52 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 50 54 56 52 51 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 49 53 55 56 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 7 5 4 7 17 18 24 18 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 53 32 39 47 20 330 291 288 298 317 354 352 345 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 145 148 151 152 150 150 150 148 149 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 123 125 128 131 130 126 124 123 124 127 115 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 7 3 700-500 MB RH 35 34 33 35 35 37 42 48 56 56 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -44 -57 -46 -31 -35 -44 -68 -70 -131 -123 -79 -83 200 MB DIV -21 -8 -3 -22 0 -9 34 -9 6 -10 7 2 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 0 -4 1 5 6 6 9 13 19 8 LAND (KM) 1095 1027 962 929 926 872 699 535 391 289 251 409 476 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.5 30.6 31.7 32.8 34.2 35.9 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.2 67.2 68.1 69.1 71.0 72.5 73.7 74.5 74.5 73.6 71.3 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 10 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 45 43 36 34 27 23 38 19 22 28 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 24. 26. 22. 21. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.7 65.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.58 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.8% 13.0% 9.6% 7.8% 11.0% 10.9% 17.7% Logistic: 1.2% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 5.2% 3.5% 2.7% 4.5% 4.4% 6.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/22/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 42 50 54 56 52 51 52 53 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 40 48 52 54 50 49 50 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 44 48 50 46 45 46 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 36 40 42 38 37 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT