* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 35 40 46 51 55 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 17 13 13 9 5 6 13 14 22 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -6 -4 -1 -3 -4 -5 0 -2 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 32 45 51 30 31 20 353 310 290 289 318 348 359 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 142 142 149 151 152 150 150 150 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 122 123 124 130 130 129 126 124 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 30 33 36 35 34 37 38 43 46 54 54 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -53 -40 -36 -50 -28 -36 -32 -63 -53 -102 -119 -108 200 MB DIV -38 -20 -19 -20 -9 -3 -10 33 -21 5 -6 8 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -5 -3 -5 3 3 8 5 9 8 11 LAND (KM) 1208 1112 1032 950 890 867 895 757 612 478 374 326 376 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.5 28.1 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.1 33.2 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.1 65.8 66.6 67.5 69.5 71.1 72.3 73.3 74.1 74.1 73.5 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 16 36 53 44 37 28 20 36 27 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 21. 22. 24. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.4 64.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.2% 14.0% 11.3% 9.3% 11.9% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.0% 4.2% 2.4% 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 6.3% 4.6% 3.3% 4.6% 3.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/22/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 52 52 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 36 41 48 50 52 50 50 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 37 44 46 48 46 46 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 29 36 38 40 38 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT