* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 39 43 46 46 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 36 39 43 46 46 41 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 33 35 39 44 48 50 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 23 19 16 11 8 7 17 21 25 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -5 -5 0 -7 -4 0 0 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 32 40 39 30 27 8 319 269 274 287 329 350 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 140 140 142 148 149 149 148 148 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 121 120 121 123 128 127 125 122 120 119 120 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 35 32 34 37 36 36 37 40 46 56 59 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -55 -53 -37 -29 -45 -29 -45 -42 -53 -79 -104 -141 200 MB DIV -25 -33 -20 -20 -26 -21 -19 21 12 -2 -11 -55 -24 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 4 6 6 8 2 10 LAND (KM) 1290 1199 1125 1058 985 903 937 856 692 565 469 426 420 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.1 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 63.8 64.3 64.8 65.5 67.4 69.1 70.4 71.4 72.1 72.4 72.2 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 17 19 52 36 29 15 5 5 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 13. 16. 16. 11. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.9 63.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.0% 13.7% 10.8% 8.6% 11.1% 9.3% 15.4% Logistic: 2.5% 4.7% 4.5% 2.4% 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.5% 6.2% 4.4% 3.1% 4.3% 3.5% 5.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/22/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/22/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 36 39 43 46 46 41 40 39 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 34 37 41 44 44 39 38 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 32 36 39 39 34 33 32 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 24 28 31 31 26 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT