* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 38 42 49 49 49 44 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 38 42 49 49 49 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 29 31 35 41 47 51 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 23 19 21 17 9 7 2 5 14 16 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 33 42 36 47 57 48 45 325 298 277 282 319 355 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 142 142 142 147 150 150 150 148 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 125 122 122 123 127 129 127 125 122 119 120 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 37 35 31 33 37 36 39 39 44 48 54 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 9 10 8 8 7 8 6 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -40 -58 -59 -45 -46 -33 -35 -36 -55 -50 -104 -118 200 MB DIV -28 -14 -28 -25 -21 -3 -6 -12 35 1 8 -24 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 2 4 7 7 5 5 LAND (KM) 1250 1282 1179 1092 1012 890 880 911 758 632 514 445 405 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 29.9 29.1 28.5 28.0 27.4 27.6 28.2 29.2 30.1 31.1 31.9 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 63.9 64.5 65.1 65.8 67.5 69.3 70.8 71.9 72.7 73.2 73.2 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 15 16 53 44 36 33 17 9 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -12. -15. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 19. 19. 19. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.8 63.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.4% 12.3% 10.0% 8.0% 10.7% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.3% 5.1% 3.9% 2.9% 4.1% 3.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/21/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 34 38 42 49 49 49 44 44 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 32 36 40 47 47 47 42 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 33 37 44 44 44 39 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 26 30 37 37 37 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT