* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 22 22 26 31 37 44 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 22 22 26 31 37 44 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 18 18 18 19 21 26 31 36 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 18 13 14 11 4 3 6 6 8 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 5 2 -3 0 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 6 38 51 43 51 76 55 139 276 265 293 314 4 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 147 144 142 148 156 157 157 156 157 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 129 126 124 131 136 136 137 134 135 133 134 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 12 11 12 12 13 12 13 10 700-500 MB RH 37 36 35 32 34 36 39 42 44 45 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -45 -61 -56 -28 -21 -11 -12 -3 -34 -55 -96 200 MB DIV -64 -14 -12 -33 -36 -8 -14 -20 3 3 -24 -8 3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 0 -3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1164 1179 1194 1086 985 822 746 707 625 487 373 305 312 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 30.7 29.6 28.8 28.1 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.5 28.3 29.3 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 64.6 65.2 66.0 66.8 68.6 70.6 72.1 73.8 75.2 76.6 77.6 78.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 15 16 37 54 46 56 47 38 65 55 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.7 64.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/21/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 23 22 22 26 31 37 44 49 52 54 55 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 23 27 32 38 45 50 53 55 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 24 29 35 42 47 50 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 24 30 37 42 45 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT