* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/21/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 36 37 40 45 46 45 40 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 36 37 40 45 46 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 31 31 32 35 39 44 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 31 33 23 23 14 12 3 8 17 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 16 3 -3 1 -1 -5 0 -3 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 352 340 3 27 36 27 29 39 52 284 265 281 293 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 152 148 142 140 140 142 148 147 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 132 131 127 121 121 122 123 127 124 120 119 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -55.9 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -56.1 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 38 42 42 38 37 37 38 37 39 46 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 -5 -5 -8 -19 -32 -20 -33 -42 -36 -36 -67 -95 200 MB DIV -59 -80 -51 0 -4 -47 -25 -24 -18 1 25 3 -6 700-850 TADV -3 0 -6 -3 0 -3 0 -1 1 2 6 8 13 LAND (KM) 1095 1239 1365 1365 1267 1105 1010 972 1010 896 720 593 521 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.4 31.3 30.2 29.3 28.0 27.4 27.6 28.5 29.8 31.2 32.4 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 62.7 62.1 61.9 62.0 62.8 64.0 65.8 67.4 69.0 70.0 70.6 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 10 9 6 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 25 30 33 29 29 25 28 21 21 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 5. 10. 11. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.4 63.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/21/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/21/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 34 33 36 37 40 45 46 45 40 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 32 35 36 39 44 45 44 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 33 34 37 42 43 42 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 27 28 31 36 37 36 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT