* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 09/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 35 35 33 36 36 39 41 47 44 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 35 35 33 36 36 39 41 47 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 32 32 33 35 38 43 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 19 27 27 21 18 15 10 6 9 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 15 4 -1 1 -5 -3 -1 -5 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 343 353 349 6 24 15 36 30 48 324 268 275 280 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 151 152 151 145 142 142 142 147 148 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 130 130 129 123 121 122 123 128 126 121 120 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.9 -56.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.9 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 41 42 36 37 36 37 37 47 54 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 8 8 6 7 5 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 26 -1 -3 -6 -35 -18 -36 -22 -45 -23 -69 -77 200 MB DIV -44 -45 -73 -35 11 -48 -15 -22 9 4 33 15 31 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 -7 -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 9 12 20 LAND (KM) 957 1090 1234 1348 1380 1206 1103 1048 1029 911 684 530 464 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 33.5 32.4 31.3 30.4 28.9 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.7 31.3 32.8 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 63.6 62.8 62.3 62.1 62.6 63.7 65.2 67.1 68.9 70.4 71.1 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 10 9 6 6 8 9 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 19 23 27 26 25 19 27 22 17 14 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -16. -15. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. 1. 1. 4. 6. 12. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.3 64.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 09/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 09/20/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 09/20/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 35 35 35 33 36 36 39 41 47 44 42 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 31 34 34 37 39 45 42 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 29 32 32 35 37 43 40 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 26 26 29 31 37 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT