* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 51 56 61 65 67 67 67 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 51 56 61 65 67 67 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 293 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.7 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -15 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1167 1122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 37. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.3 45.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.3 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.3 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.7 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.3% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 45 51 56 61 65 67 67 67 68 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 46 51 56 60 62 62 62 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 39 44 49 53 55 55 55 56 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 39 43 45 45 45 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT