* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 57 57 54 47 35 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 57 57 54 39 32 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 44 47 48 48 46 36 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 15 10 10 9 9 8 18 29 34 37 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 2 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 285 280 291 299 310 319 325 278 280 281 284 293 323 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.9 25.3 21.1 16.7 14.5 14.6 14.5 10.8 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 122 125 123 109 87 77 75 74 73 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 96 99 102 102 93 78 73 72 71 70 67 67 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -56.7 -57.1 -57.6 -56.9 -56.6 -56.4 -56.7 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 44 41 42 48 57 70 64 57 54 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 9 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 -12 -37 -61 -73 -52 -15 -49 -71 -79 -76 -105 200 MB DIV 0 -8 -2 14 5 13 18 25 -3 6 -16 -27 -177 700-850 TADV 0 5 2 1 2 6 28 16 8 25 31 39 34 LAND (KM) 1258 1236 1183 1118 1053 978 1077 1400 1095 406 -41 166 -196 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.3 37.9 38.7 39.6 41.8 44.5 47.6 50.6 52.7 54.1 54.7 54.5 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 45.1 45.0 44.8 44.5 42.9 39.6 34.1 25.9 16.2 6.7 -2.1 -9.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 9 11 15 21 28 32 31 27 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. -3. -10. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. 27. 24. 17. 5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.9 45.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.7% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.0% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.2% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 43 47 51 55 57 57 54 39 32 27 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 42 46 50 52 52 49 34 27 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 38 42 44 44 41 26 19 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 32 34 34 31 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT