* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 39 44 49 52 55 57 55 49 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 39 44 49 52 55 57 55 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 39 42 44 43 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 18 15 13 7 6 4 6 9 11 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -6 -6 -4 -2 -5 0 0 -2 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 302 300 304 310 324 340 345 343 327 313 313 337 338 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.9 24.9 23.4 19.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 117 118 118 124 107 99 82 78 77 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 93 95 97 104 93 88 77 73 73 70 67 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.7 -56.8 -56.6 -56.4 -56.5 -57.1 -57.8 -58.0 -58.0 -57.5 -57.4 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 47 45 46 44 52 56 58 56 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 16 9 8 -8 -48 -84 -94 -84 -116 -98 -91 -88 200 MB DIV -3 -1 -10 -7 20 -21 16 21 7 3 -6 -8 -43 700-850 TADV -1 -1 5 4 -1 9 3 32 21 27 16 17 5 LAND (KM) 1266 1259 1242 1225 1200 1142 1146 1329 1638 1007 471 206 14 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.8 37.2 38.6 40.6 43.1 45.7 47.6 48.8 49.1 48.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.8 46.7 46.6 46.2 44.5 41.6 37.0 30.5 22.5 14.7 8.0 3.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 4 7 12 18 24 29 28 25 18 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 30. 24. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.3 46.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 36 39 44 49 52 55 57 55 49 44 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 36 41 46 49 52 54 52 46 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 34 39 42 45 47 45 39 34 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 31 34 36 34 28 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT