* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 34 36 34 31 28 26 24 22 22 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 34 36 34 31 28 26 24 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 37 36 32 29 24 25 24 29 25 26 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 326 327 333 339 342 338 334 332 327 315 307 304 320 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 127 128 127 128 126 122 120 116 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 103 105 105 103 105 104 101 99 97 98 98 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 58 56 49 45 42 41 40 43 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 18 32 32 37 29 0 -66 -78 -74 -68 -64 -76 200 MB DIV 6 16 34 25 -11 21 -3 29 6 15 6 -9 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -3 0 -1 3 5 2 11 3 7 6 7 LAND (KM) 1120 1208 1285 1363 1430 1524 1547 1546 1555 1566 1583 1622 1696 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 35.9 35.2 34.5 33.9 33.1 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.6 33.9 34.2 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 51.5 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.8 49.9 48.7 47.4 46.3 44.9 43.2 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 4 5 6 5 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 4. -2. -9. -16. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.7 51.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 34 36 34 31 28 26 24 22 22 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 31 33 31 28 25 23 21 19 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 27 25 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT