* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 42 39 34 31 29 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 42 39 34 31 29 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 29 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 40 36 33 31 23 25 29 24 23 21 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 324 327 327 335 341 341 335 334 328 328 313 311 311 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 126 128 128 128 124 121 118 116 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 103 104 106 106 105 103 100 97 96 96 97 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 58 59 54 48 46 41 41 42 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 21 33 36 44 10 -22 -75 -77 -70 -68 -69 200 MB DIV 5 14 14 20 18 0 0 14 8 24 10 8 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -5 -2 0 0 1 7 5 5 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1033 1110 1197 1287 1376 1515 1564 1568 1561 1572 1584 1621 1677 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 36.8 36.0 35.2 34.4 33.2 32.9 33.1 33.5 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.3 51.2 50.6 49.5 48.2 46.8 45.8 44.6 43.0 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 3 3 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 4. -3. -10. -16. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 17. 14. 9. 6. 4. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.5 51.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 41 42 39 34 31 29 30 29 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 37 38 35 30 27 25 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 32 29 24 21 19 20 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT