* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 36 39 37 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 36 39 37 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 38 36 39 39 35 31 24 23 25 23 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -2 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 318 320 315 318 324 331 343 336 338 334 322 326 326 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 126 125 124 125 125 124 124 123 115 112 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 103 102 102 102 102 100 102 102 97 94 96 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 -56.7 -56.5 -56.6 -56.3 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -56.2 -56.6 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 51 54 56 57 56 52 48 44 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -4 2 13 17 22 29 32 -7 -34 -67 -85 -104 200 MB DIV -6 -10 -8 -3 -4 -6 1 0 8 18 6 30 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -7 -3 -3 -2 1 3 3 9 7 8 10 LAND (KM) 759 791 873 972 1065 1220 1326 1399 1422 1424 1424 1458 1509 LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.7 39.1 38.3 37.5 36.1 35.1 34.5 34.5 34.9 35.6 36.2 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 51.3 50.4 49.8 49.5 49.3 49.4 49.0 48.0 46.5 44.6 42.6 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 3 5 8 9 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 12 10 6 5 3 2 3 3 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 863 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 4. -5. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 8. 4. -2. -7. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 39.9 52.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 36 39 37 33 29 23 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 33 36 34 30 26 20 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT