* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 33 36 39 40 37 34 30 26 21 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 33 36 39 40 37 34 30 26 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 34 34 33 34 34 30 23 17 17 16 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -7 -3 -4 -7 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 310 319 328 325 320 322 324 332 333 333 332 326 344 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 127 124 122 120 120 122 123 123 119 113 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 104 102 100 97 96 97 98 101 100 97 92 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 -56.9 -56.7 -56.5 -56.4 -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 55 55 54 55 60 55 52 48 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -11 -1 5 11 15 12 16 8 -28 -40 -69 -107 200 MB DIV -12 2 -7 -18 5 -1 -2 -4 16 4 23 20 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -4 -2 -1 0 1 6 13 9 24 12 LAND (KM) 780 804 881 979 1069 1197 1239 1261 1285 1295 1288 1306 1359 LAT (DEG N) 39.7 39.6 39.1 38.4 37.7 36.6 36.1 35.8 35.6 35.8 36.6 37.7 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 51.2 50.0 49.1 48.5 48.1 48.5 48.9 48.8 47.6 45.5 42.9 39.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 7 4 3 2 3 7 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 11 10 7 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. -3. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 12. 9. 5. 1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 39.7 52.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 33 36 39 40 37 34 30 26 21 19 18HR AGO 25 24 28 30 33 36 37 34 31 27 23 18 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 29 30 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT