* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982018 08/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 40 42 40 35 30 26 21 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 40 42 40 35 30 26 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 31 31 30 30 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 32 32 30 36 35 33 28 20 24 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -7 -9 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 316 312 323 333 326 328 326 336 338 334 331 324 336 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 127 124 123 119 121 122 123 122 124 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 104 102 101 96 96 98 98 96 101 103 102 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -56.9 -57.1 -56.8 -56.8 -56.4 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 60 57 54 55 57 57 53 54 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 -6 -3 4 10 11 2 -4 -30 -42 -39 -62 200 MB DIV -1 -9 -7 -7 -4 2 -7 -8 3 10 23 3 25 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 1 7 15 17 LAND (KM) 800 817 869 958 1043 1179 1233 1200 1184 1190 1196 1190 1202 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 39.4 39.1 38.5 37.9 36.8 36.2 36.3 36.3 36.2 36.3 36.9 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 51.9 50.6 49.5 48.7 48.0 48.3 49.2 50.0 50.3 49.4 47.3 44.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 8 4 3 4 3 2 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 10 8 4 3 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. -3. -11. -17. -23. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 15. 10. 5. 1. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 39.5 53.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982018 INVEST 08/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982018 INVEST 08/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982018 INVEST 08/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 40 42 40 35 30 26 21 20 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 37 39 37 32 27 23 18 17 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 30 32 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 21 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT