* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982017 09/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 44 49 52 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 44 49 52 54 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 33 37 44 52 57 59 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 13 11 4 4 11 11 17 16 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 0 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 34 356 11 22 280 258 252 274 268 276 264 260 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 134 130 129 126 125 122 122 122 121 121 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 112 108 107 106 106 104 104 102 101 101 103 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 -56.6 -56.5 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 58 58 58 58 58 53 43 40 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -34 -43 -55 -61 -76 -81 -78 -86 -93 -90 -89 -68 200 MB DIV -10 -3 -17 -3 -12 10 -24 -17 -49 -38 -18 -19 -2 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 2 -1 3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1900 1842 1765 1712 1674 1649 1700 1819 1978 2106 2203 2286 2333 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.4 31.1 31.6 32.0 32.5 32.5 32.1 31.3 30.5 29.8 29.0 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.2 49.2 49.1 48.8 47.5 45.7 43.5 41.6 40.5 39.9 39.8 40.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 7 9 9 8 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 9 5 1 11 2 8 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 49.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.51 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 148.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 33.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 10.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 12.9% 8.3% 4.6% 3.2% 4.9% 3.2% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.5% 6.3% 3.8% 1.1% 1.7% 5.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982017 INVEST 09/22/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 44 49 52 54 54 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 33 38 42 47 50 52 52 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 33 37 42 45 47 47 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 29 34 37 39 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT