* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982017 07/31/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 46 50 53 51 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 30 29 34 38 43 45 44 41 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 29 28 31 32 34 37 39 41 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 28 26 17 20 16 16 19 21 24 27 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 0 -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 331 325 328 308 276 310 287 277 261 273 272 280 264 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 167 165 160 155 150 154 151 139 135 132 124 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 145 140 135 130 135 135 124 119 115 107 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -54.0 -54.6 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 41 45 46 46 46 46 46 48 53 52 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 5 -8 6 15 -22 -24 -52 -60 -41 -22 -8 -3 200 MB DIV -7 -27 1 19 0 0 28 22 15 6 -8 13 -4 700-850 TADV -1 13 8 8 7 9 -3 12 3 9 -2 12 7 LAND (KM) 178 98 22 -66 -36 147 342 444 535 799 924 937 1013 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 28.2 29.3 31.1 32.7 34.2 35.3 36.2 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 83.8 82.8 81.8 80.7 79.0 77.2 74.7 71.1 67.3 63.6 60.0 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 16 17 17 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 50 40 44 50 78 75 28 26 11 10 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 21. 19. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.0 84.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982017 INVEST 07/31/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 194.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 90.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 3.5% 0.2% 999.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982017 INVEST 07/31/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982017 INVEST 07/31/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 30 29 34 38 43 45 44 41 38 35 18HR AGO 30 29 31 27 26 31 35 40 42 41 38 35 32 12HR AGO 30 27 26 22 21 26 30 35 37 36 33 30 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 24 28 33 35 34 31 28 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT