* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982017 07/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 41 45 47 49 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 32 33 37 39 41 43 41 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 35 31 32 32 34 37 40 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 29 22 13 15 10 17 16 17 20 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 3 4 1 -6 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 352 329 322 328 303 293 264 268 259 252 238 253 244 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 167 166 162 151 152 154 150 136 133 123 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 146 147 144 132 133 136 135 122 118 108 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 45 48 45 45 42 47 49 54 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 37 8 -12 5 -11 -17 -44 -59 -42 -29 -19 -11 200 MB DIV -8 -3 -27 -5 8 -6 25 23 31 3 6 15 31 700-850 TADV -1 6 13 9 9 7 9 4 18 3 -9 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 144 187 108 29 -67 48 253 459 467 646 852 859 921 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 28.3 29.8 31.7 33.5 35.2 36.5 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 84.7 83.9 82.9 81.7 79.7 77.9 76.1 73.1 69.3 65.2 61.2 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 10 13 18 19 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 47 42 47 39 78 45 22 16 12 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.4 85.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982017 INVEST 07/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 191.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.9% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.4% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982017 INVEST 07/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982017 INVEST 07/30/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 32 33 37 39 41 43 41 38 35 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 28 29 33 35 37 39 37 34 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 23 24 28 30 32 34 32 29 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT