* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982017 07/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 30 33 37 44 48 51 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 30 27 33 40 43 47 49 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 27 25 28 30 33 36 39 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 22 18 24 22 10 10 10 13 13 14 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 8 9 8 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 13 9 340 336 343 275 332 269 274 261 251 260 257 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 171 171 168 160 151 153 152 144 136 133 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 148 150 149 141 133 134 136 130 121 117 108 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -54.0 -54.4 -55.1 -54.8 -55.1 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 46 48 46 46 45 48 51 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 33 3 -17 5 -16 -25 -56 -62 -43 -23 -14 200 MB DIV 3 -9 -7 -27 -6 10 -1 26 33 16 3 7 23 700-850 TADV 7 -6 -10 3 5 3 6 -2 6 -2 10 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 170 182 216 148 67 -67 117 319 484 511 760 901 892 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.3 34.0 35.5 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 85.8 85.0 84.2 83.2 80.8 79.0 77.3 75.1 71.8 67.8 63.7 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 15 19 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 36 42 61 50 69 78 34 21 13 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 12. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.5 86.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982017 INVEST 07/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.3% 9.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.5% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982017 INVEST 07/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982017 INVEST 07/30/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 30 27 33 40 43 47 49 49 48 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 27 24 30 37 40 44 46 46 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 19 25 32 35 39 41 41 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT