* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 44 43 41 39 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 44 43 41 39 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 46 44 40 36 33 30 26 22 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 35 37 36 38 35 43 39 49 56 59 59 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 -3 0 -10 -4 -6 -8 -4 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 322 320 330 343 348 339 341 334 340 342 359 5 11 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 159 155 148 141 138 135 138 144 145 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 144 143 138 128 119 115 111 116 124 124 127 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 57 56 60 58 52 46 43 44 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -92 -93 -90 -108 -110 -95 -29 -26 -19 -26 -52 -40 200 MB DIV -25 -31 -27 -40 -17 -14 16 -8 -23 -28 -34 -25 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -2 0 -3 1 4 2 -1 -2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 827 818 818 858 913 1053 1207 1337 1402 1339 1142 1062 1072 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 10 8 7 6 4 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 46 50 42 18 16 20 14 19 23 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -25. -33. -42. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.5 60.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 223.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 44 44 43 41 39 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 39 37 35 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 33 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT