* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 36 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 36 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 37 35 31 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 37 38 42 43 41 45 45 50 52 56 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 -4 -5 -8 -9 -8 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 320 326 326 334 344 346 340 337 343 352 1 8 11 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 161 162 160 156 151 149 152 157 162 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 142 144 144 141 135 125 121 128 135 141 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 59 63 63 67 66 59 53 48 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -93 -94 -82 -96 -109 -104 -78 -54 -54 -29 -39 -48 200 MB DIV 7 -30 -16 -15 -35 -10 5 8 -10 -8 -49 -23 8 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 -3 -1 0 -5 4 0 0 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 781 756 738 744 757 858 966 1047 1061 1018 922 799 655 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.1 27.5 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.0 25.7 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.0 61.7 62.4 63.2 64.5 65.7 66.2 66.1 65.9 65.6 65.6 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 3 1 4 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 55 66 67 58 37 28 27 26 28 30 40 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -21. -29. -38. -47. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -23. -28. -31. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 60.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 182.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 37 37 36 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT