* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 37 39 44 51 49 50 53 49 33 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 4 1 0 0 -4 -11 -7 -7 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 310 315 316 323 325 322 310 304 311 315 310 297 252 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.6 26.7 25.9 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 159 161 162 159 154 145 134 125 116 109 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 146 146 148 145 138 128 118 115 104 95 88 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -54.5 -55.5 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 55 55 61 68 73 61 55 59 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -76 -81 -82 -93 -97 -82 -51 -7 21 62 60 63 200 MB DIV 11 -4 4 -1 -26 7 21 44 35 24 37 19 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 1 4 -2 3 12 8 9 13 5 1 LAND (KM) 924 836 776 750 758 869 1058 1043 1099 1132 1266 1258 1289 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.6 26.2 28.5 31.2 33.3 34.6 35.3 35.7 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.1 59.5 60.7 61.8 62.7 64.5 65.9 65.9 63.8 59.1 53.6 49.5 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 11 11 12 13 14 16 23 20 15 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 49 64 63 36 25 9 6 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -18. -28. -39. -47. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -18. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 58.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 56.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 27 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 25 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT