* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 30 35 38 47 51 50 55 44 43 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 4 0 0 -1 -12 -5 -11 0 0 SHEAR DIR 306 314 316 318 325 323 321 310 312 314 317 304 314 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.4 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 155 157 159 159 156 155 144 133 126 117 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 143 144 145 144 141 137 127 120 113 103 95 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -54.3 -55.2 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 49 53 54 62 70 64 60 56 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -67 -80 -85 -89 -112 -109 -77 -23 -6 19 54 54 200 MB DIV 20 10 -1 7 -14 -17 9 39 23 42 23 31 -15 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 -1 1 0 -2 8 19 7 18 0 8 LAND (KM) 1038 956 900 849 822 855 1010 1155 1144 1134 1308 1376 1409 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.2 25.6 27.5 30.1 32.6 34.2 34.5 34.5 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.8 58.8 59.9 60.9 62.8 64.6 65.3 64.0 60.1 54.8 50.3 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 13 13 15 21 21 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 40 43 48 57 20 11 10 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -16. -26. -37. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.1 56.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT