* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 28 28 32 44 48 48 52 56 49 32 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 2 -3 3 1 -5 -16 -14 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 311 316 318 321 328 325 308 306 311 301 296 290 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.4 26.7 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 152 154 158 157 153 151 144 133 125 118 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 139 141 145 143 137 133 127 119 112 102 90 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -54.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -54.6 -55.7 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 45 46 49 56 65 70 64 63 61 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -51 -74 -85 -83 -102 -95 -72 -1 5 15 8 -9 200 MB DIV 16 22 0 -6 -26 -31 -15 9 41 23 52 41 -8 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 -2 -2 1 -4 8 17 29 27 17 8 LAND (KM) 1163 1112 1064 1007 962 931 1018 1236 1195 1099 1143 1096 1014 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.3 25.6 27.3 29.6 32.2 34.4 35.9 37.0 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.0 56.9 57.9 59.0 61.2 63.2 64.3 63.6 60.5 55.4 50.7 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 20 22 15 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 37 37 38 45 26 12 12 5 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -14. -23. -34. -44. -49. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 55.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 8.7% 5.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.8% 4.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT