* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 10/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 27 28 28 33 49 52 48 59 51 51 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -5 -3 1 -17 -9 -13 -2 SHEAR DIR 305 312 316 320 321 323 328 324 311 312 317 321 321 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 147 150 154 157 159 154 154 146 138 129 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 134 137 140 144 144 139 136 127 121 114 105 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 -54.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -54.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 8 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 47 46 50 51 60 68 66 61 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -50 -56 -72 -85 -89 -104 -90 -54 -12 -7 27 28 200 MB DIV 24 23 18 6 -3 -20 -9 -1 24 12 28 14 26 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 -1 1 -3 0 6 24 13 24 9 LAND (KM) 1230 1189 1142 1084 1022 919 899 990 1196 1146 1193 1282 1374 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 24.4 25.6 27.2 29.5 31.7 33.2 33.8 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 54.9 55.6 56.5 57.5 59.7 61.8 63.9 65.0 64.4 61.6 57.5 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 12 11 13 12 12 16 17 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 38 38 37 38 55 25 12 16 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -6. -15. -23. -33. -42. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.0 54.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 10/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.30 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 208.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982016 INVEST 10/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 10/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 32 32 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 28 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT