* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 43 54 62 69 74 77 74 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 43 54 62 69 74 77 74 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 53 57 60 58 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 8 6 5 7 13 14 18 21 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 0 6 6 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 32 39 64 72 106 122 153 178 203 203 227 245 246 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 131 127 123 121 121 122 125 128 130 134 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 135 131 125 120 116 114 114 116 117 119 123 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 60 57 57 52 45 40 40 37 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 17 17 17 18 17 17 19 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 116 114 106 97 80 50 47 52 45 38 10 0 -22 200 MB DIV 19 38 47 44 57 58 47 39 12 24 26 0 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 2 6 8 9 19 13 5 LAND (KM) 1680 1774 1872 1978 1931 1887 1922 1903 1856 1879 1952 1933 1829 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 14 12 10 6 3 10 9 7 6 13 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 3. 0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 37. 44. 49. 52. 49. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 32.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 17.9% 11.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% Logistic: 7.6% 30.7% 12.8% 9.4% 0.0% 6.4% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 17.4% 8.5% 6.4% 0.0% 2.2% 8.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 38 43 54 62 69 74 77 74 72 70 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 39 50 58 65 70 73 70 68 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 32 43 51 58 63 66 63 61 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 39 46 51 54 51 49 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT