* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 66 72 78 81 85 88 93 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 66 72 78 81 85 88 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 60 64 68 73 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 14 12 14 16 21 17 13 12 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 25 33 45 56 61 67 74 79 76 87 57 68 33 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 137 133 132 129 128 125 122 122 124 124 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 141 132 128 121 121 118 113 114 120 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 63 62 63 64 63 60 57 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 16 15 15 14 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 107 120 121 120 112 70 33 16 35 38 38 25 12 200 MB DIV 11 42 47 42 25 44 56 66 37 34 18 34 36 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -8 -7 -7 -7 -3 0 0 -1 0 7 13 LAND (KM) 1592 1785 1913 1801 1718 1647 1675 1762 1841 1828 1726 1665 1635 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.7 14.3 15.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 33.4 35.1 36.3 37.2 38.1 38.1 37.6 37.2 37.7 39.4 41.5 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 14 10 7 3 4 5 3 5 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 12 13 18 18 17 14 14 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 336 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 29. 41. 47. 53. 56. 60. 63. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 31.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.4% 10.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% Logistic: 8.9% 26.0% 9.7% 6.5% 0.0% 5.2% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 17.2% 7.6% 5.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/16/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 43 54 66 72 78 81 85 88 93 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 50 62 68 74 77 81 84 89 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 43 55 61 67 70 74 77 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 32 44 50 56 59 63 66 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT