* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 72 78 82 81 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 72 78 82 81 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 68 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 12 13 14 16 11 2 11 21 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -8 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 17 22 28 29 37 51 54 74 27 262 249 246 239 SST (C) 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 139 138 136 130 128 122 119 119 122 121 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 143 138 133 124 123 118 115 115 116 111 110 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 67 64 70 72 70 61 54 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 17 15 16 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 90 104 109 109 99 71 18 38 37 37 -9 -23 -28 200 MB DIV 3 11 45 59 54 46 55 79 54 -4 20 37 63 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -8 -10 -9 -6 -2 1 0 6 15 16 16 LAND (KM) 1391 1579 1726 1841 1916 1919 1922 1816 1845 2019 2272 2511 2359 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.7 12.8 14.7 17.2 20.2 22.8 25.4 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 31.2 32.7 33.9 34.7 35.5 35.2 34.4 34.6 36.4 39.0 41.3 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 14 10 8 5 8 12 14 18 18 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 17 16 15 16 14 4 1 0 0 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 36. 47. 53. 57. 56. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 29.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.29 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.3% 8.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% Logistic: 5.4% 16.7% 6.3% 3.0% 0.0% 4.1% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.9% 5.3% 3.4% 0.0% 1.5% 5.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 72 78 82 81 81 79 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 47 58 69 75 79 78 78 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 41 52 63 69 73 72 72 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 42 53 59 63 62 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT