* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 39 50 60 69 76 78 78 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 39 50 60 69 76 78 78 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 54 62 66 67 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 13 10 9 9 5 4 6 17 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 15 5 6 13 18 48 57 94 202 252 230 243 234 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 136 137 129 121 117 119 120 123 124 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 136 135 124 115 111 113 115 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 67 67 66 66 68 60 52 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 15 15 16 17 16 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 83 88 95 93 93 86 60 48 43 42 14 -10 -3 200 MB DIV -10 -3 15 40 56 63 91 48 33 9 4 20 46 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -12 -10 -10 -8 -3 -1 2 4 9 17 21 LAND (KM) 1115 1264 1386 1480 1555 1655 1678 1720 1872 2083 2308 2286 2259 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.8 14.3 16.2 18.3 20.1 21.8 23.3 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 28.2 29.5 30.6 31.5 32.7 33.1 33.5 34.7 37.0 40.0 42.8 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 8 9 11 13 16 15 14 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 21 26 26 24 9 2 1 1 3 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 25. 35. 44. 51. 53. 53. 54. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 26.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 39 50 60 69 76 78 78 79 78 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 36 47 57 66 73 75 75 76 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 40 50 59 66 68 68 69 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 41 50 57 59 59 60 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT