* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 59 69 77 79 83 87 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 59 69 77 79 83 87 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 53 61 68 73 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 14 15 14 14 8 4 5 8 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -6 -3 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 35 25 19 26 41 61 67 93 280 274 229 236 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 131 133 136 135 130 120 117 119 120 124 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 134 134 136 131 125 114 111 114 115 118 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 68 66 67 68 72 69 59 48 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 79 83 87 93 93 72 65 46 46 38 32 2 -3 200 MB DIV -25 -16 10 19 30 66 81 69 38 21 14 27 35 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -8 -8 -8 -7 -3 -2 0 1 11 11 18 LAND (KM) 1037 1211 1364 1475 1561 1624 1619 1600 1662 1861 2126 2333 2338 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.2 11.4 13.0 14.9 16.9 19.0 21.0 22.7 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 25.8 27.5 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.1 32.4 32.4 32.9 34.7 37.5 40.9 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 13 11 9 7 9 10 12 15 17 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 18 10 15 21 21 25 25 6 1 1 1 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 34. 44. 52. 54. 58. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 25.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/15/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 48 59 69 77 79 83 87 85 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 45 56 66 74 76 80 84 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 39 50 60 68 70 74 78 76 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 40 50 58 60 64 68 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT