* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 37 46 55 62 67 72 76 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 37 46 55 62 67 72 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 36 42 48 54 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 8 8 9 10 11 9 1 10 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 37 41 45 50 60 72 85 84 94 163 290 262 252 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 131 132 131 135 133 125 118 118 120 122 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 133 133 131 133 129 119 111 112 115 117 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 70 67 68 69 70 70 69 64 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 75 75 76 80 70 59 48 41 43 52 53 24 200 MB DIV -21 -40 -25 -3 -7 13 24 64 48 53 6 5 4 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 11 LAND (KM) 823 971 1100 1221 1331 1463 1527 1564 1664 1852 2118 2036 1918 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.9 12.3 13.9 15.5 16.8 17.9 18.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 25.2 26.5 27.7 28.8 30.4 31.4 32.0 33.0 34.7 37.1 40.1 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 12 10 9 8 9 10 11 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 22 12 10 14 25 24 17 4 2 4 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 35. 42. 47. 52. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.2 23.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 28 37 46 55 62 67 72 76 77 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 35 44 53 60 65 70 74 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 31 40 49 56 61 66 70 71 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT