* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982016 08/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 42 48 52 53 58 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 42 48 52 53 58 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 30 34 37 39 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 15 15 13 8 7 9 8 7 4 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 54 39 33 44 51 69 88 142 196 233 298 287 260 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 131 132 133 137 137 132 121 116 117 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 133 132 132 137 135 128 117 111 112 113 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 82 79 76 73 72 69 69 70 71 67 63 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 85 85 83 72 67 62 58 49 52 54 52 200 MB DIV 42 22 7 5 18 4 15 8 26 32 35 35 13 700-850 TADV 0 -7 -10 -13 -15 -13 -8 -4 -3 0 -2 7 8 LAND (KM) 481 592 716 836 937 1123 1253 1388 1547 1782 2030 1934 1780 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.9 13.4 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.6 22.9 24.1 25.1 27.0 28.7 30.3 31.9 34.1 36.4 38.9 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 18 19 11 12 9 6 4 5 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 22. 28. 32. 33. 38. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.7 20.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982016 INVEST 08/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982016 INVEST 08/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 28 34 42 48 52 53 58 64 66 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 26 32 40 46 50 51 56 62 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 28 36 42 46 47 52 58 60 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT